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Morning Market Briefing – Wednesday- 09/4/2013

Yesterday morning the bulls were in control and the US market started the day green. The good feeling did not last long thanks to politicians who were once again trying to rally the nation into war. Clearly, every day Americans, the troops, and nearly everyone else around the world don’t want the United States of America to intervene in Syria. However, a hand full of leaders supports this war.

As an attempt on being optimistic, we at Alpha’s Edge are trying hard (very hard) to understand those leaders. We know that they have information and plans which we don’t. But why take a chance when the potential cost of a bet is so high and the potential gain is so small?

What is the best possible outcome that can come from intervening in Syria?
• The side we support wins.
• Once again we show the world we are in charge.
• Some of our (the US) friends will be happy with us.
• Control of more natural resources.

What is the worst possible outcome that can come from intervening in Syria?
• The start of WWIII, which in this case we WOULD lose.
• Nuclear war.
• New York City , DC, Miami, Boston, New Port, Honolulu, San Diego, San Francisco, Los Angeles,
Seattle and other coastal cities getting nuked by subs resulting in millions of American civilians dead.
• Global economic collapse (at least at first).

What the war would not achieve?
• Bring peace to the Middle East.

Sure, many of you are thinking there is no way we Americans can lose. We however strongly disagree with this assessment and feel that this is a war that we are guaranteed you lose. There are several reasons for this. The two that matters the most are; the world isn’t on our side and the American people (and troops) do NOT want this war. It is one thing asking people to give up their lives to defend their country and family. It is a completely different animal to ask people to give up their lives so the rich can get richer.

Now that we are done ranting, Today’s morning market briefing is similar to yesterday in the aspect that the only news that matter is Syria. The market is unsure and in fear, that is a recipe for a significant move in either direction. War is priced in slightly more than no war, so an up move would be significantly higher than a down move. With that said, this is a market you don’t want to be short because lots of resent good economic data has been priced out due to Syria.

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