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January 2018
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Alphas Morning Market Update

                The big story this morning is the dollar.  The DJI is relatively flat and non eventful, which is a very bullish sign considering it had a 4 month rally.  However, the dollar is down against nearly ALL major currencies, a bullish sign for the precious metal investors.    BUT, for me, the big story is the VIX up 5% this morning (they might not be selling stocks, but they are sure buying protection).

                Bloomberg has a few good articles worth reading.  I would definitely check out the China talks, UK raising rates and Bernanke averting the “Second Great Depression”.

                CNBC is talking about how the market is rallying because of the good housing data.  Like always, they are clueless to what is driving the market up. 

                CNN has actually one very good article discussing the next banking crisis, the regional bank.  They made some good points, however, there was still a lot left to ponder about.  I would have liked to see them touch on what will be the affects that this next banking crisis will have on the overall economy.

                Forbs top story is about the shrinking US GDP.  I think at this point everyone believes that the GDP will shrink except for Bernanke who is predicting a 1% GDO increase at the end of this year.  I actually think he might be right, considering how government measures data and the trillions of dollar being printed, how can a small portion not trickle down to the peons?

                Lol, I got to try not to laugh, but at the Market Watch the big news is how the “Home sales goose stocks”.  By itself, this wouldn’t of been a funny read, but considering I just read an article on CNBC giving the credit for the rally on good home sales number, just strengthens my post above how CNBC was clueless.

                Reuters top story is the thirst for oil returning.  Sigh, the demand for oil going up driving prices up (right conclusion with wrong reasoning).  Sure, like I said up top, dollar is falling…for me, this automatically means higher commodity prices.

                The Wall Street Journal has a bunch of political stories, go figure.  Their top story is Obama and China talks. 

                After reading and reviewing most of the top stories, I believe the market will have a correction this week.  There are many reasons for thinking this.  The biggest is that we are due for a technical correction, even if this rally is real (which it hasn’t been!).  Another reason is the increase of interest on put protection and the increase of the VIX.  The third reason I think the market will correct this weak is because the USD is in need of a rebound (or a slight correction) to gaining strength versus the other currencies.  This means commodity prices should fall this week with all the other equities, including stocks.

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