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September 2017
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Consolidation or a top?

                Oh, this is such an easy call for the few that have a vision and an understanding of the human psyche.  Let me start off by saying that it is not a consolidation (although that is what it looks like).  The market is trading at too low of a volume for it to be a true consolidation.  It’s almost like it is frozen, too afraid to buy high but too greedy to miss another rally.  So it’s a top right? NOPE, not saying it is a top either, there is not enough volume signifying a top.  So what is it?  Simple, the market is waiting to see what (if any) monetary policies OR/AND fiscal policies will take hold.  Feds increase rates and reduce M1, market will sell off faster than a China 5 dollar sucky sucky hooker.  Government puts a muzzle on spending and tries to be fiscally responsible, expect a falling market.  If both happen, expect a collapsing market!  The truth is, the market is overbought (it had a great 9 month best ever record breaking bull rally).  The number of things that can go wrong is now 100 fold times the number of things that can go right.  The exact opposite was true in March, everything that could of went wrong already had and there was nothing left to go wrong after the mark to market changes.  If this is not a strong sell signal, I do not know what is.

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