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January 2018
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How can so many experts be so wrong so often?

I ask myself that at least once a day the last 4 years.  It’s amazing, you see a set of events taking place, decisions being made and special interest taking control of “a target” and you know exactly what will happen.  It is like watching in slow motion a result that has not yet happen DESTINED to materialize from choices made.  You scream, shout, warn and plead to whoever will listen, but they don’t.  You start to wonder if it’s your own lack of communication skills or if it’s your audience inability to fundamentally understand the subject matter.

                Today in the Wall Street Journal, the economists are dead wrong again.  Wrong how they were about the internet bubble, about the housing market and about the credit default swaps not affecting the overall economy.  Yet I’m sure many people will completely buy into the idea.  “US Economy Seen Stabilizing In Second Half Of 2009-NABE Survey”, the title states.  WTF, can the possibly be more wrong?  Let’s dissect peace by peace.

“The U.S. economy should stabilize in the second half of this year” WRONG, the economy has already stabilized (short term) when government started to hand out billions of dollars to anyone deemed too big to fail.

“but a robust recovery is unlikely and job cuts should continue” Wrong, robust recovery WILL NOT HAPPEN and job cuts WILL continue.

“slight plurality of NABE members thinks the worst is already over” Wrong, the worst is not over, the worst will be when commodities start to trade in currencies besides the USD when foreigners realize there are more dollars than good to be bought and hyperinflation takes hold.

“Monday, 45% of respondents said sales hit their cyclical low in the first half of 2009 or before. A slightly smaller share, 41%, peg the trough at the second half of 2009. Only 14% expect the low point to be in 2010.” WRONG, the worst will be after 2010 when Feds are raising rates to prevent hyperinflation.

“inflationary pressures appear nonexistent” Wrong, every day the equity market goes up the dollar has fallen in value dramatically.  It’s the inflationary pressure that has blurred the data caused by the real economic deflation.   Consumer goods are becoming more expensive as individuals are making less dollars.

Yep, I basically disagreed with every sentence in the article.  It was nothing but blind optimism and wishful thinking.

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