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May 2017
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Interesting stock market opening

Today’s stock market opening has been one of the most unique ones that I have seen.  You have the dollar strengthening across the board signifying either a move to safer currency or that the US economy is rebounding faster than the rest of the world.  The stock market was down 60 basis pre open and quickly reversed 110 points to positive 50 points.  Nearly all stocks are up as commodity prices are higher even though the dollar is higher (clearest sign of global inflation).  But the most troubling trend is the bond market.  The 3 and 6 month short term bonds are -10% and -5.6% respectively, signifying a flight to shorter maturity (predicting low rates and stock market correction).  The 2, 5, 10 and 30 year bonds are + 1.04%, 0.84%, 0.59%, and 0.48% respectively.  This means that there is a lot of confusion about where bond prices are going and how it will affect the economy.  No clear signal can be interpreted from this data.  The only thing that one can say for certain is that several big players are moving in opposite directions, and one of the sides is going to lose big!

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