Investment of the decade – 232 Petition– Stock URG – Ur-Energy

Ur-Energy (URG) may be the investment of the decade. Last time I felt this strong regarding an investment was betting against New Century (NEW) and American Home Mortgage (AHM) in late 2006. NEW and AHM both had nearly all their business based on providing ultra-risky mortgages. Long story short, I had over 1000% return in 6 months as both companies’ stock went into a death spiral.

Unlike NEW and AHM, I’m long URG. The stock is currently trading at $0.60/share but can easily trade above $5/share within a year. There are many reasons why URG is a no brainer. Here are a few big ones.

1. 232 Petition needs to pass for the sake of our country! The same way China has taken control of the rare earth industry, Russia is strategically taking control of the Uranium Industry. There is no technology on earth that provides a country with an economic, military, and environmental advantage greater than nuclear. Russia with Camecos’ assistance via Kazakhstan has put nearly all uranium mines in the Western Hemisphere out of business. Canadian based Cameco, working closely with Kazatomprom, has developed various uranium mines in Kazakhstan. These mines have been heavily subsidized and loosely regulated resulting in artificially low uranium cost of production. As a result, even high concentration mines such as Cameco’s own McArthur River uranium mine in Canada have shut down. Russia’s strategic initiative goes beyond underpricing western uranium mines. Uranium one, a Canadian registered company, is actually a wholly owned subsidiary of Russian state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom. The company has purchased various uranium projects all over the world, many of which are in the US. If Trump does not protect the US uranium industry, we might as well start learning how to speak Russian.
2. URG is the best US uranium company. The Lost Creek mine has an exceptional ore body. Not only is the uranium grade at Lost Creek higher than expected, it also contains little impurities and no vanadium. UR-Energy also has an exceptional management team in Jeff Klenda, John Cash, and Steve Hatten. They have been able to succeed in an extremely unfavorable business environment due to perfect execution. Unlike Cameco, URG has very little legacy costs. URG is also in a position to quickly ramp up and bring up new uranium projects, diversify their business, and own a uranium waste disposal site. Additionally, their Class V project is industry leading technology not currently used by competitors.
3. URG is ridiculously cheap. At a price of $0.60/share, the company has a $95 million market cap. If an investor wanted to start a company similar to URG, they would have to purchase (and find) a proven uranium ore body. Then, they would have to invest over $100 million dollars in various drilling projects, spend 7 years permitting for a new mine, $300 million for a new plant, and obtain qualified staff. Basically, the investor would have to provide over $800 million dollars and 7 years to become a company that has a $95 million market cap. This is assuming they execute everything perfectly. The great irony however is that when the uranium industry was booming, and URG was just a speculation, it traded higher than $4 a share with no production (2007).
4. There are very few uranium investment choices in the US. If 232 passes, uranium investments will quickly bid higher due to the limited supply. Smart and fast money will quickly invest in the few proven companies. After careful analysis, no company will benefit more from a favorable 232 petition than URG.
5. 232 is not just about US mining companies, its about the nuclear industry as a whole. The United States is falling behind other countries regarding nuclear technology. This is something that should concern every America. Nuclear in general has a negative association to the West. Unfortunately, there are many foreign regimes that are looking at nuclear for global superiority. US must continue to invest in the nuclear industry if its to retain its world status.

It is important to note however that the 232 petition is a David versus Goliath story. On one side, you have two relatively little uranium US based mining companies left fighting for survival and possibly the DOD. On the other side, you have Russia, Power Companies, China, Globalists, Billionaires, Special Interest and hundreds of Lobbyists to prevent 232 petitions from passing. If it was any other president besides Trump, I would predict that special interest would win, and the country would lose (google Hilary Uranium One deal). With Trump in power however, there is hope that we will prevent Russia’s and China’s strategic initiative to control the uranium industry.