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Morning Market Briefing – Tuesday- 09/17/2013

Yesterday in the morning, the US market rocketed higher with the news of Larry Summers withdrawing his name from the Fed Chairman position.  Soon after, traders across the nation stopped trading and glued their eyes to tragic (yet non market related) news.  In the morning, a mass shooting at the Washington Navy Yards left 13 dead.  Aaron Alexis, 34 was a full-time member of the U.S. Naval Reserve and obviously a disgruntled American.  As money becomes concentrated in the hands of a few and the poor and middle class becomes destitute, we expect these mass shootings to increase.

Today, with the market set to open slightly higher, it is once again focusing on news which affects it.  We believe that this push higher is only a head fake.  The market is destined to sell off because the good news (Syria temporary resolution) is priced in and bad news (tapering) is not so priced in.

Morning Market Briefing – Monday- 09/16/2013

People sometimes say that life is stranger than fiction, well; there is a good logical reason for this.  When it comes to bankers and politicians, the fiction becomes reality while the truth is hiding deep in the hearts of the accomplices.  Last week and this morning are prime examples.

Last week, was a mostly positive week with low volume volatility.  The week started with the most radiant country (unquestionably) winning the bid to host the 2020 Olympics.  Japan market (and radiation) had a burst off the charts!

The issue de jour last week however was Syria.  Obama da Hun was abundantly clear that we had no choice except going to war with Syria.  As evidence, every time he gave a speech the war trade was on (markets sold off, treasuries bid lower, gold higher, and oil higher).  On the other side, Putin da Reagan backed by nearly every other country in the world demanded a resolution based on diplomacy.  As evidence, when Putin twitted, posted or spoke, the markets headed higher.

On Monday, the no-war trade paid off.  Vladimir Putin proposed to the world an alternative for the Syria crisis that no one could resist, except the Special Olympics team in Washington (no offence to the truly handicapped).  The good feeling lasted all day Monday and most of the trading day on Tuesday.  Tuesday night Obama spoke to the nation in an attempt to gain support for a military strike against Syria.  He just wanted one little missile!

On the anniversary of 9/11 (Wednesday), Obama continued to support Al-Qaida and the rebels trying to overthrow the government of Syria.  Yet, Putin delivered the nail in the coffin and fatally killed Obama’s war plans.  With his Reagan like charisma, Vladimir captured the hearts of the people throughout the world with his New York Times post.

http://www.alphasedge.com/classic/vladimir-putin-the-new-ronald-reagan

On Thursday, the markets consolidated after seven straight days of gain.  The sell-off was weak but broad based. Maybe it was the “Larry Summers” 85% chance of being the next Fed Chairman that caused the sell-off, will we ever know?

On Friday the 13th, the market continued to head higher when it was clear the Obama had no choice but to back-off the war plans.

The highlight of last week however came on Saturday.  When I say highlight, I mean the truly entertaining and the hilarious.  Obama and the clowns on Washington went on a full court press.  They desperately tried to convince the Nation that Putin did not win; it was actually Obama who caused the diplomatic solution to Syria by forcing the Syria issue.  Can you believe the size of the balls on our politicians?  This is like an arsonist taking credit for a fireman putting out a fire and saving the victims.  Maybe if Obama and his Arabian friends didn’t arm the Al-Qaida rebels in Syria, we wouldn’t have a bloody war in the first place.

On Sunday Larry Summers declined to be selected as the next Fed Chairman.  So this morning, the Markets are pointing to a very solid open.  It’s either the no-war trade or the no-Larry Summers trade that’s giving the markets broad based optimism.  Let’s hope this optimism lasts a few days.

Alphas Edge Website Update – Sept/14/2013

Another week has passed with lots of progress.  We at Alphas Edge are working very hard to create useful tools for investors to assist them in finding great investment opportunities.  As we grow, we are looking for exceptional investors who would like to share their investment opportunities with Alphas Edge.  If you are an independent investor who happens to know (or enjoy finding) exceptional investment opportunities, feel free to email us at alphasedge@gmail.com.  Note however, that Alphas Edge will do a deep analysis on the investment prior to posting and supporting it.  Our goal is to ensure our investment advice is the best free advice in the entire web.

There is a bundle of great projects in the work to make the site a phenomenal resource for investors.  First, let’s cover what an alphas edger can expect this year!

On A Weekly Basis

  • Monday through Friday, a pre-market article summarizing the previous day events and that days expectation.
  • Saturday an article discussing alphas edge website updates, changes, and new features.
  • Sunday will be spent on web site development.

What Was Done This Recent Week

  • Updated the “Contact Us” page.
  • Updated “The Alphas Edge”, a free-online (for mobile phone) newspaper for investors.  Now you can get the top stories on your smart phone from various news agencies.
  • We have started to actively tweeter, follow us on twitter.com.
  • Updated internal web site structure.

What Will Be Done In the Near Future

  • Working on Special Project #1 … this is hush hush
  • Member only page that contains articles specific to an investment opportunity.

Not all tasks and projects will be listed on the Saturday updates.  We are currently working on some crazy-market disrupting-projects (3 big projects and 1 amazing project).  Most likely, ONE of these larger projects will be implemented by year end.

Morning Market Briefing – Friday- 09/13/2013

On Thursday, the markets consolidated after seven straight days of gain.  The sell-off was weak but broad based. Commodities in particular got hit hard with metals taking most of the sell pressure.  Oil however, did not follow the trend and ended the day 1% higher at $108.65/barrel. The big news yesterday was Twitter’s IPO announcement and talks of Larry Summers as the next Fed Chairman.

Twitter is doing due diligence to avoid a Facebook like IPO offering.  The two companies are very similar in the aspect that they are valued by how many people use a free service and not by the revenue it brings in.  I’m sure Twitter will be just as overvalued as Facebook.

The Larry Summers announcement is definitely not priced in yet.  I guess the markets are trying to figure out if the rumors are true and if so will he maintain Bernanke’s easy money policies or start to raise rates.  At the same time, it appears Obama has leaked his name out to test market reaction.

Today is Friday the 13th, a day that I personally feel lucky.  The markets however, it’s another story.  Something big changed from yesterday to today and that something is going to put pressure on the market for the next few days.  I’ll give everyone a hint, it affects interest rates.

Morning Market Briefing – Thursday- 09/12/2013

On the anniversary of 9/11, the US market had a day of modest gains. The DOW had its 7th day of gain, while the S&P was relatively flat.  The Nasdaq ended the day red thanks to a rotten apple.  The big news yesterday was Apples lack of innovation and Vladimir Putin’s Ronald Reagan like diplomatic charisma.

In recent weeks, many folks had asked us what we thought of Apple.  Is Apple a good long term investment or not?  The quick answer is NO! Apple’s ability to innovate and more importantly brand died when Steve Jobs died.  This was very apparent by Tim Cook’s first major decision, to cannibalize two Apple products with the launch of IPad Mini.  Now, when what Apple needs is a new innovative home-run product, he launches cheap IPhone’s.  In his short time as the CEO, he has managed to ruin both the profit margin and the brand.  Apple was a high end product for high end people.  If you wanted an Apple, you had to pay for an Apple.  Now, Apple offers a trendy phone that has less freedom than many of its competitors.  “Timme” is choosing to compete in a though low profit market.

On a more positive note, we are glad that at least the leader of one super power understands the importance of the Geneva Convention.  Putin once again educated Obama on leading the world.  The problem now has become crystal clear.  Obama cares more about what his out-of-touch short-bus riding criminal gangs in Washington think than what the people of the world want.

The great Putin post!

http://www.alphasedge.com/classic/vladimir-putin-the-new-ronald-reagan

Today, the market appears to be opening modestly higher.  Again, we are expecting today to be a day of profit taking (considering how many positive days we had in a row).  However, with Putin’s new found charisma to drive up the market or Obama’s stubbornly-defeated state of mind to drive down the market, anything can happen.

Vladimir Putin the New Ronald Reagan

There are a few things that you read which leave tears in your eyes.  Truths that are so undeniable that no one in the world can ignore.  These truths, often spoken by great leaders, have created shock-waves rippling throughout the world.  Reagan had those truths, and now so does Vladimir!

Many consider Ronald Reagan to be one of the greatest US presidents.  SoundBits of his “Gorbachev, tear down that wall” is to this day still played all over the world.  The most pressing foreign policy issue of Ronald Reagan’s first term was the Cold War. He branded the Soviet Union “the evil empire”.  During his second term, Reagan using logic and reason cemented diplomatic relationship with the reform-minded Mikhail Gorbachev. Reaching out his hand with compassion and understanding, he was able to gain Gorbachev trust.  With this new trust the Americans and Soviets signed a historic agreement to eliminate intermediate-range nuclear missiles.  Months later, Reagan spoke at Germany’s Berlin Wall “a symbol of communism” and famously challenged Gorbachev to tear it down. Twenty-nine months later, Gorbachev allowed the people of Berlin to dismantle the wall, ending Soviet domination of East Germany.  Ronald Reagan had the people of the world in his side and with time even his enemies became his friends.  Not a single missile, only words were used to liberate and unite Germany.  He made the world a safer and better place, and the world appreciated him for it.

Now, decades later, the roles have changed.  It’s us, the United States, (actually, our political leaders), who is undermining global peace with constant war of aggressions.  We act as a rogue country doing what we want, when we want, regardless of global opposition.  With every missile we launched, no matter how small, our moral and global support has burned to ashes.

But from ashes of destruction always rise new leadership.  The irony that it is the Russians, acting rational leaves this one American speechless.

Authored by Vladimir Putin, posted at The New York Times

A Plea For Caution From Russia

Recent events surrounding Syria have prompted me to speak directly to the American people and their political leaders. It is important to do so at a time of insufficient communication between our societies.

Relations between us have passed through different stages. We stood against each other during the cold war. But we were also allies once, and defeated the Nazis together. The universal international organization — the United Nations — was then established to prevent such devastation from ever happening again.

The United Nations’ founders understood that decisions affecting war and peace should happen only by consensus, and with America’s consent the veto by Security Council permanent members was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. The profound wisdom of this has underpinned the stability of international relations for decades.

No one wants the United Nations to suffer the fate of the League of Nations, which collapsed because it lacked real leverage. This is possible if influential countries bypass the United Nations and take military action without Security Council authorization.

The potential strike by the United States against Syria, despite strong opposition from many countries and major political and religious leaders, including the pope, will result in more innocent victims and escalation, potentially spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders. A strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism. It could undermine multilateral efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and further destabilize the Middle East and North Africa. It could throw the entire system of international law and order out of balance.

Syria is not witnessing a battle for democracy, but an armed conflict between government and opposition in a multireligious country. There are few champions of democracy in Syria. But there are more than enough Qaeda fighters and extremists of all stripes battling the government. The United

States State Department has designated Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, fighting with the opposition, as terrorist organizations. This internal conflict, fueled by foreign weapons supplied to the opposition, is one of the bloodiest in the world.

Mercenaries from Arab countries fighting there, and hundreds of militants from Western countries and even Russia, are an issue of our deep concern. Might they not return to our countries with experience acquired in Syria? After all, after fighting in Libya, extremists moved on to Mali. This threatens us all.

From the outset, Russia has advocated peaceful dialogue enabling Syrians to develop a compromise plan for their own future. We are not protecting the Syrian government, but international law. We need to use the United Nations Security Council and believe that preserving law and order in today’s complex and turbulent world is one of the few ways to keep international relations from sliding into chaos. The law is still the law, and we must follow it whether we like it or not. Under current international law, force is permitted only in self-defense or by the decision of the Security Council. Anything else is unacceptable under the United Nations Charter and would constitute an act of aggression.

No one doubts that poison gas was used in Syria. But there is every reason to believe it was used not by the Syrian Army, but by opposition forces, to provoke intervention by their powerful foreign patrons, who would be siding with the fundamentalists. Reports that militants are preparing another attack — this time against Israel — cannot be ignored.

It is alarming that military intervention in internal conflicts in foreign countries has become commonplace for the United States. Is it in America’s long-term interest? I doubt it. Millions around the world increasingly see America not as a model of democracy but as relying solely on brute force, cobbling coalitions together under the slogan “you’re either with us or against us.”

But force has proved ineffective and pointless. Afghanistan is reeling, and no one can say what will happen after international forces withdraw. Libya is divided into tribes and clans. In Iraq the civil war continues, with dozens killed each day. In the United States, many draw an analogy between Iraq and Syria, and ask why their government would want to repeat recent mistakes.

No matter how targeted the strikes or how sophisticated the weapons, civilian casualties are inevitable, including the elderly and children, whom the strikes are meant to protect.

The world reacts by asking: if you cannot count on international law, then you must find other ways to ensure your security. Thus a growing number of countries seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction. This is logical: if you have the bomb, no one will touch you. We are left with talk of the need to strengthen nonproliferation, when in reality this is being eroded.

We must stop using the language of force and return to the path of civilized diplomatic and political settlement.

A new opportunity to avoid military action has emerged in the past few days. The United States, Russia and all members of the international community must take advantage of the Syrian government’s willingness to place its chemical arsenal under international control for subsequent destruction. Judging by the statements of President Obama, the United States sees this as an alternative to military action.

I welcome the president’s interest in continuing the dialogue with Russia on Syria. We must work together to keep this hope alive, as we agreed to at the Group of 8 meeting in Lough Erne in Northern Ireland in June, and steer the discussion back toward negotiations.

If we can avoid force against Syria, this will improve the atmosphere in international affairs and strengthen mutual trust. It will be our shared success and open the door to cooperation on other critical issues.

My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States’ policy is “what makes America different. It’s what makes us exceptional.” It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.

 

So we at Alphas Edge ask, what would Ronald Reagan think of Obama?   Would he be branding the Bush/Obamas United States “the evil empire”?  Would he be asking why the Russians and not the US, is talking peace?  Or why is the United States on the side of terrorists who are attempting to over through Syria?  

Morning Market Briefing – Wednesday- 09/11/2013

Yesterday the expected happened. The markets had solid gains throughout the day on the back of good economic news from China and the Syria agreement.  Traders enjoyed those rare days that all ten sectors finish to the up side.  Only three investment types did not perform well; gold, oil and US treasuries.

Gold dropped 1.6% to $1364.90 per troy ounce. Oil flopped 2.0% to $107.29 per barrel. Treasuries sold off, which took the benchmark 10-yr yield higher by four basis points to 2.96%.

Last night Obama spoke to the nation in regards to Syria.  Although he gave what we felt was a compelling argument, the facts why majority of the free world don’t support the war has not changed.  The world believes that the Syria war has nothing to do with chemical weapons.  It has to do with replacing a non-compliant leader for one that’s compliant, resulting in control of oil and natural gas supplies.  US credibility was destroyed when we invaded Iraq the second time.  The fact that Obama keeps mentioning North Korea and Iran as we debate Syria only undermines his objective.

If the US and global elites wish to replace the leaders of Syria, North Korea, and Iran, they have to change their strategy.  It cannot be the US initiating and instigating the regime change, it has to happen naturally.  If these leaders are bad people, as Obama claims, then let them be bad.  Let their true colors come out before executing judgment.  Besides, we have criminals at home to take care of.

Today, the market is flat digesting multiple days of gain.  We are expecting today to be a day of profit taking.  However, any news out of Syria can and will affect the markets.

Morning Market Briefing – Tuesday- 09/10/2013

Yesterday was an all-around great day with lots of pleasant surprises and profound ironies. The markets opened like a rocket ship and never looked back.  It once again received better than expected economic news from around the world.  Traders who had bet on market collapse and war with Syria had extensive losses (our apologies to gloom and doom folks).  Traders who had bet the world would act rational over Syria and accepted good economic data cashed in on significant gains.

When we say profound ironies, we truly mean it.

As our loyal readers know, we were long Intrepid Potash (IPI).  Russian’s Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin surprised potashers with talks of resolution between Russia and Belarus.   Shares of Intrepid Potash jumped more than 7% on high volume.  Just as we predicted, IPI was a painful stock to be short.  Putin, Belarus, and some billionaires seem to be working on an agreement to maintain the cartel.

The probability of war with Syria has greatly diminished.  No, it’s not what you expect.  Our short-bus riding incompetent leaders in Washington (Obama, Kerry, McCain, and Rice) did not get the peace memo (yet they got a Nobel Peace Prize!).  They wanted war regardless of the fact that Americans and the world did not want it.  Once again we were saved by ….OMFG – Putin? Yes, Putin! Vladimir the Impeller Putin drove a big hard shaft right up the Nobel Peace Prize winner’s war plan.  Putin has checkmated the Bro, leaving Obama with no choice but to follow Russia’s leadership.  (On a side Note, we had hopes that Obama would somehow read our Coalition of the Conscious and lead the world to peace).

But the ironies kept on coming!  At the end of the day, none other than the Great Squid who on a daily basis sucks the market dry found a financial advisor for their financial advisors?  Yes, this is not a joke… Goldman Sachs (GS) is moving brokerage accounts for some current and former employees with less than $1 million in assets to Fidelity Investments.  HA HA HA… Poor (literally) GS employees do not fit the firm’s wealth-management focus on high-net worth clients.  I’m surprised they got employed in the first place.

Today, the market is green in the pre-open.  Yet, cynical I am expecting a late day reversal for no other reason than Obama.  I know what most readers and Americans are thinking.  Obama cannot possibly in good conscious try to convince the nation to go to war after Putin’s checkmate.  Yet, I can envision Obama stepping off his short-bus and trying to lead the world into war when the world wants to follow Putin into peace!

We just closed our IPI trade (7% gain in 2 weeks)

As you know we went long IPI on August 26 and purchased it at 12.70/share.

http://www.alphasedge.com/stock-market-news/time-to-buy-some-potash-stocks

Today, following our Alphas Edge trading guidelines, we decided to cash out the position at $13.60/share.

 

Grats us on a 7% return in two weeks…that is 182% gain yearly.  Not one of our good trades but a win is a win.

 

Morning Market Briefing – Monday- 09/9/2013

On Friday, the markets got into a small accident and suffered from a severe case of whiplash.  In the morning, Obama spoke.  When it was apparent that war was imminent, the market crashed over 100 points within minutes. As war seemed less probable, the markets recover all the lost points and remained green most of the day.  At the end of the day, the market finished where it started (flat and confused).

Until Syria is resolved, it will remain the top news for the markets.  War with Syria means the following; higher oil, higher gold, higher defense company stocks, lower rates, and strengthening US dollar.  Note however, strengthening of the dollar only lasts if we are on the winning side.  If we are on the losing side, think Weimar Republic.  No war results in economic news once again being the driving force for the markets.  Okay, okay, I’ll take that last sentence back.  I meant random front-running algos will once again be the driving force.

Today, the market is flat and waiting on anything about Syria.  Japan Nikkei (+2.24%) had a burst from winning the bid to host 2020 summer Olympics.  Spain’s MADX had the reverse affect (-0.6%).  The important thing to do today is follow the development with Syria and position oneself accordingly.